THE FOUR TURNINGS ARE BASICALLY:
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The First Turning: THE
HIGH - Demand and
Supply for order is high
The First Turning is a High, which occurs after a Crisis.
During The High, institutions are strong and individualism
is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go
collectively, though those outside the majoritarian centre
often feel stifled by conformity. The most recent First
Turning in the US was the post-World War II High,
beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of
John F Kennedy on November 22, 1963.
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The Second Turning: THE
AWAKENING - Demand for
order is low, but supply for
order is high - so chaos.
This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name
of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is
reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly
tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of
"self-awareness", "spirituality", and "personal authenticity".
Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of
cultural and spiritual poverty. U.S.'s most recent
Awakening was the "Consciousness Revolution", which
spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the
mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s - with Nixon
removing the Gold standard - The Hippy Generation.
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The Third Turning: THE
UNRAVELLING - Demand
and Supply for order is low
- rowdy, individualistic,
lightly governed and
prospering well.
The mood of this era is, in many ways, the opposite of a
High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while
individualism is strong and flourishing. Unravelling comes
after Awakenings when society wants to automate and
enjoy - the roaring 20s was a classic example of this. They
say the most recent unravelling in the US began in the
late 1980s. All books are about I, Me and Myself - self actualisation.
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Publicly, nothing really happened. This
period was a period of prosperity between the 1980s and
2008.
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The Fourth Turning: THE
CRISIS - Demand for order
is high and Supply is low
This is an era of destruction, often involving war or
revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and
rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's
survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural
expression redirects toward community purpose, and
people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger
group.
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According to Neil Howe, we started the 4th Turning with the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and this is likely
to last until the end of 2020 / early 2030s.
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- 1861-1865 Civil War led to the emancipation of the slaves. Gettysburg speech
- 1929-1945 the Great Depression and WW2 which resulted in World Bank, IMF, United Nations, NATO
- 2008 - ? GFC - normally starts with economic downturns
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GENERATIONAL TYPES
There are different Archetypes depending on when you are born - in which turn.
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Born from 1946 to 1960
PROPHETS
They were born after World War II and grew up
during the High. They had a great childhood, but
then, as they reached adulthood, they were tired of
community living and wanted to be more
individualistic and rebelled during the Awakening of
the 1970s.
Woodstock epitomises this era.
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Reputation as a child |
Spirited |
Coming of Age (18-30) |
Sanctifying, young crusaders remembered
for their coming-of-age
Passion (Flower Power, etc.) |
Transition to midlife (40-65) |
Moralistic, move from Detached to Judgemental |
How it is nurtured |
Relaxing after the drama of
the war |
E.g.: Abraham Lincoln
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How it nurtures |
Tightening |
Positive Reputation |
Principled, Resolute, Creative |
Negative Reputation |
Narcissists, Presumptuous, Ruthless |
Endowments |
Principal Endowment are
often in the domain of
Vision, Value and Religion |
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Born from 1961 to 1981
NOMADS
They were raised during an Awakening - no one
cared about them, latchkey kids while parents were
discovering themselves. They basically raised
themselves and used to run their own lives. Cynical of
big broad national causes. Movies of the 1970s -
Rosemary Baby, Omen. Exorcist. Negative image of
small kids. Xers were not part of a group - isolated /
loners - and there were always winners and losers.
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Reputation as a child |
Bad |
Coming of Age (18-30) |
Self-Sufficiency.
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Transition to midlife (40-65) |
Frenetic to Exhausted
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How it is nurtured |
Under Protected |
How it nurtures |
Over-Protective |
E.g.: George Washington
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Positive Reputation |
Savvy Practical, Perceptive |
Negative Reputation |
Unfeeling, Uncultured, amoral |
Endowments |
Principal Endowments are
often in the domain of
liberty, survival and
honour. |
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Born from 1982 - 2004 HERO
The Millennials were growing up during 3rd Turning -
Unravelling - Dot Com Bust - 9/11/2001. The previous
preview to 4th turning was WW I. After being
neglected as children, the Gen X parents were
overprotective. Cuddly movies - Baby's Day Out,
Three Men and a Baby, Lion King, This generation is
excited about being a part of the group - have to
conform. Flappers of the 20s (which were the
Nomads after WWI) - Fitzgerald and Hemmingway -
wild crowd drank a lot. In the meantime, the kids
were being protected - the Boy Scouts movement
was started during this period. All have to follow the
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Reputation as a child |
Good |
Coming of Age (18-30) |
Empowering |
Transition to midlife(40-65) |
Energetic. All have been
aggressive advocates of
economic prosperity and
public optimism and all
have maintained a
reputation of civic energy
and competence to
the end of their lives. |
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same rules to avoid any problems. Anyone who has a
different point of view is wrong. Have to be a part of
the herd. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
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How it is nurtured |
Tightening |
How it nurtures |
Relaxing |
Positive Reputation |
Selfless, Rational Competent |
Negative Reputation |
Unreflective, Mechanistic Overblown |
Endowments |
Principal Endowment are
often in the domain of
community, affluence and
technology. |
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Born from 2004 to ?
ARTIST
If you were a child when the big event hit (Great
Depression and WW2), you learned to keep quiet and
not disturb the adults. They are protected children,
and they hardly ever leave the house for anything.
Even entertainment is at home. As adults, they have
bigger things to worry about – they tend to be
helpful, considerate, and nice.
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Reputation as a child |
Placid |
Coming of Age (18-30) |
Quiet Years, Unfulfilling |
Transition to midlife (40-65) |
Conformist to experiment, midlife years become more
flexible, consensus
building leadership |
How it is nurtured |
Overprotective |
How it nurtures |
Under-protective |
E.g.: Joe Biden
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Positive Reputation |
Caring, open-minded,
expert |
Negative Reputation |
Sentimental, Complicating, indecisive |
Endowments |
Principal Endowment are
often in the domain of
pluralism, expertise and
due process. |
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HOW TO NAVIGATE THE FOURTH TURNING
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Winter is here. We are in the Fourth Turning and have
been since 2008. If everyone lives a long life, everyone will
live through all turnings, but they will be at different ages
for each one.
In the USA and other developed countries:
- The country is fragile.
- Demand for Order is high. During Covid-19, everyone in
the USA was dependent on the State. The economy
was about -3%, and average disposable income was up
7%.(10% spread has never happened)
- The leaders are old, and the crisis will demand a New
Leader who is not born but made.
- Borrowing is at an all-time unsustainable high. This
changes the rules. World growth fell, and yet the S&P
500 doubled. Old rules are not working anymore, and
something has to give.
- The geopolitical problem is Ukraine and the Middle
East. The divide between Republicans and Democrats
is so vast that the spectre of civil war is rising. In 4th
Turning, the possibility of both internal and external
strife is real.
- Trust is low, and Acceptance of Violence is high
We are at the BUST part of the cycle - where the status
quo collapses, and a new ORDER will develop. What is
worse than an actual bust is if the current trends
continue. Normally it ends in conflict. So, to survive the
Fourth Turning, you need to reconnect with family,
neighbours and community.
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New leaders will emerge - probably from GenX. In the Civil
War, Abraham Lincoln, a nobody with one term in
Congress, took leadership. In the Great Depression and
WW 2, Franklin Roosevelt - an average student and
athlete with polio at 39 years old - steered the country
through the New Deal and WW 2.
By the end of the Fourth Turning, there will be a
movement from individualism to community and, within
that, from privilege/poverty to equality. Societies become
more unequal at times of peace and prosperity and more
equal in crisis, and a social reconstruction happens. There
will be a movement from creating problems to solving
problems together - Reforms happen for the sake of the
common good when there is no other choice. The largest
infrastructure growth will occur at a time of crisis.
This right of passage always ends in the 1st Turning -
a time of Prosperity.
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WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN INDIA?
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Of course, if there is an Economic bust and Geopolitical
problems, India will be affected at first. However, we are in
a better situation because:
- We are still one of the few large economies with a
young population and increasing workforce - although
the pace is slowing down. This will continue up to 2050
or so when we will be in the 1st turning.
- The middle class is expanding rapidly - that is a
considerable number who will consume.
- Only about 20% of our GDP is dependent on Exports.
- Our Real Estate cycle upturn has just started. The last
one ended in 2009, and the Real Estate sector has
stagnated. It contributes 7.5% to GDP but is the 2nd
largest source of employment after agriculture
- Our banking is in good shape, and so is corporate India.
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There is no apparent problem in the Indian equity
markets. However, we are at all-time highs, and there
could be some time correction. We do have a major event
happening in 6 months - The Elections. Hence, till then,
we can be a bit more defensive with more attention to
large caps, pharma and IT.
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The interest cycle peaked this month in the US, and we
followed it by rising marginally. It has already started
cooling off a bit.
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Gold and Silver are dependent on the international prices.
The Dollar index has weakened, and hence, gold and silver
prices have taken off. Gold is very close to an all-time high,
but in dollar terms silver has a way to go. With interest
rates falling and the dollar index falling it is a "risk off"
situation and very positive for precious metals.
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